Models
Visible Alpha broker models via S&P Xpressfeed · 14 brokers · 313 line items · freshest revision 2026-07-20.
ECC trading overtakes as modeled crypto contribution collapses ~61% in FY26
| Line | FY-2025A | FY-2026E | FY-2027E | FY-2028E | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net contribution | $861.15m | $955.54m | $1.06bn | $1.16bn | +11.0% | 14 |
| Trading | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net trading contribution | $545.86m | $615.36m | $675.98m | $710.09m | +12.7% | 12 |
| Net trading contribution (Equities, commodities and currencies) | $371.62m | $548.56m | $581.23m | $600.44m | +47.6% | 13 |
| Net trading contribution (Cryptoassets) | $173.83m | $67.65m | $93.36m | $109.65m | -61.1% | 12 |
| Interest | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net interest contribution | $215.80m | $208.14m | $233.80m | $265.03m | -3.5% | 12 |
| Other | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| eToro money contribution | $85.47m | $118.84m | $136.88m | $158.04m | +39.0% | 12 |
| Subscriptions & others | $12.45m | $14.10m | $19.01m | $26.31m | +13.3% | 12 |
Where broker models disagree
The rebound in crypto contribution, volume and trades is unsettled; brokers agree crypto fell but not how far it recovers. ECC, by contrast, clears with a single-digit IQR.
| Line | Period | Median | Q1–Q3 | Min–max | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net trading contribution (Cryptoassets) | FY-2027E | $92.50m | $71.64m–$111.60m | $47.12m–$148.95m | 11 |
| Net trading contribution (Cryptoassets) | FY-2028E | $100.71m | $86.92m–$142.02m | $49.02m–$159.94m | 7 |
| Cryptocurrencies volume($B) | FY-2027E | $11.59bn | $10.26bn–$13.49bn | $8.46bn–$14.90bn | 7 |
| Cryptocurrencies trades(M#) | FY-2027E | 47.40m Number | 39.87m Number–55.74m Number | 28.10m Number–60.00m Number | 10 |
The scale engine: ECC volume and funded accounts fund the mix shift
ECC volume rises toward ~$210B by FY27 on a growing funded-account base and rising AUA per account. Crypto volume and trades sit below FY25 across the horizon — the crypto contribution weakness is a volume story, not just a take-rate one.
| Line | FY-2025A | FY-2026E | FY-2027E | FY-2028E | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accounts | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Funded accounts(M#) | 3.81m Number | 4.31m Number | 4.74m Number | 5.23m Number | +13.3% | 12 |
| Assets under administration (AUA)($B) | $19.49bn | $22.07bn | $27.01bn | $31.81bn | +13.2% | 5 |
| AUA per account($) | $5,113 | $5,040 | $5,602 | $6,030 | -1.4% | 5 |
| ECC | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ECC volume($B) | $157.49bn | $182.23bn | $210.10bn | $208.49bn | +15.7% | 9 |
| ECC trades(M#) | 531.38m Number | 794.01m Number | 842.82m Number | 874.58m Number | +49.4% | 13 |
| Crypto | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cryptocurrencies volume($B) | $16.12bn | $9.12bn | $11.78bn | $13.19bn | -43.4% | 10 |
| Cryptocurrencies trades(M#) | 59.22m Number | 40.58m Number | 46.23m Number | 48.62m Number | -31.5% | 12 |
Blended economics compress: effective fee rate to ~0.6% and NIM to ~2.6%
The blended fee rate and net interest margin both step down and hold, and crypto's per-trade contribution never returns to its FY25 level. Growth therefore leans on more accounts and volume rather than richer economics per unit.
| Line | FY-2025A | FY-2026E | FY-2027E | FY-2028E | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blended | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Effective fee rate - eToro(%) | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% | -0.2pt | 11 |
| Net interest margin(%) | 3.0% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.6% | -0.3pt | 12 |
| Take rate | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cryptocurrencies take rate(%) | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.0% | -0.2pt | 9 |
| ECC take rate(%) | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | +0.1pt | 9 |
| Per trade | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Contribution per trade - Crypto($) | $2.91 | $1.71 | $2.13 | $2.29 | -41.0% | 11 |
| Contribution per trade - ECC($) | $0.70 | $0.68 | $0.68 | $0.69 | -2.4% | 13 |
| Per user | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Average contribution per user($) | $236.0 | $233.2 | $237.4 | $237.2 | -1.2% | 12 |
KPI lines rest on far fewer brokers than the headline
AUA is modeled by five brokers and the crypto-AUA line by a single analyst — treat it as one view, not consensus. Broker counts on volumes, take rates and FY28 generally drop to 3–7, and the freshest revisions cluster around mid-July 2026.
Headline P&L consensus, momentum and beat/miss live in the CapIQ tab.